Financial market efficiency : a study of the time series properties of the Jordanian stock market

Abstract

The ASE has developed greatly since its establishment and has succeeded in accomplishing several of its goals by mobilising capital into the productive sectors of the economy. ASE appears to be well organised, attractive, and aims to attract international investments in order to increase the depth of the market. The aim of the study is to explore the efficiency of this emerging market and investigate the integration with other capital markets in the region. Conventional tests beside recent econometric techniques are implemented. The thesis starts with a review of the development of the efficient market hypothesis, followed by an overview of the development of the Jordanian Financial Market. The autocorrelation and runs test - runs up and down, distributions of runs by length, and runs above and below -are applied to the daily price indices of ASE to examine whether ASE is weak form efficient. The empirical results reflect significant positive dependency patterns in stock prices and suggest that the price behaviour in ASE does not follow the random walk model over time. However, further investigation is applied to find whether these results could be exploited, through technical analysis, to outperform the simple buy and hold policy. Filter rules and moving average techniques are used. Furthermore, and for the results of moving average techniques, standard statistical testing is extended through the use of bootstrap techniques. According to the moving average rule. buv. and sell signals are generated by tN\o,, moving averages of the level of the index (Iong and short period averages). The conditional returns on buy or sell signals from actual data are compared to the conditional returns from simulated series generated by a range of models (random walk with a drift, AR (1), and GARCH-(M)). The results of this part of the study generally suggest that technical analysis helps predict stock price changes in the Jordanian stock market. In the next part of the thesis, recent econometric Procedures are employed to investigate the behavioural properties of ASE indices. The Box-Jenkins estimation, irrespective of the index examined produced different models with a high prediction performance, violating the EM: H conditions. The unit-root test also confirmed these results as the return series for all indices did not exhibit unit root, and all processes were stationary. The GARCH-M(l, l) model is estimated and present mix results cross the indices. To a certain limit, the results support the existence of a significant link between conditional volatility and stock returns, and the conditional variance is found to change over time as a result of volatility clustering effects. The last part of the thesis applies the cointegration and Granger causality tests to investigate the concept of market integration and comovements. These techniques are applied using, firstly, the five Jordanian daily indices, and secondly, the weekly price indices for ten MENA (Middle East and North Africa) markets. The cointegration test between the Jordan index and every other market index is applied. Moreover, different groups of markets (GCC, Africa, and Europe) are composed and the cointegration test is applied for each group. Results suggest that the Jordanian stock market does not exhibit a long run relationship with most other markets, and there is an advantage for investors looking for diversification in the Middle East markets.