A comparison of active travel and vehicle diurnal flow profiles to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the new norm

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic affected the travel behaviour and lives of people worldwide, services were closed, and people instructed to work from home. Motorised traffic fell sharply, whilst active travel, crucial to meeting Net Zero, saw unprecedented increases. This raises the question whether pre-pandemic diurnal and weekly flow patterns remain representative of those in the post-pandemic. Data clustering is applied to multi-modal diurnal flow profiles to investigate whether they have changed through the pre-pandemic to post-pandemic era. This thesis comprises three studies, each reflecting a particular stage of the pandemic, covering vehicle and active travel flows within Tyne and Wear, England. The first study investigates cycling flows at each specific stage of the first lockdown and showed with statistical significance that locations associated with noncommuting-shaped flows witnessed the largest increases, while commuting profiles saw a decrease. As lockdown restrictions eased, flow profiles began to show signs of a return to the pre-pandemic norm. One of the legacies of the pandemic was pop-up active travel infrastructure, which became the focus of the second study. Pedestrian and cycle lockdown flows were compared with those a year on, and showed further signs that things were returning to normal. As time progressed, interest grew in longer-term implications in the post-pandemic era rather than the immediate response to lockdowns. Amidst growing evidence that vehicle traffic was returning to pre-pandemic levels and given its significant contribution to carbon emissions, they were included alongside cycling flows in the final analysis. A comparison of 2019 pre-pandemic with the 2022 post-pandemic flows confirmed that within the study area, vehicle flows were indeed at 2019 levels, whilst cycling volumes were 17% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Both modes have experienced shifts in the spread of flows across the day and week, which offers insight to transport planners understanding the new-normal for transport.